Country-resolved combined emission and socio-economic pathways based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios

Abstract. Climate policy analysis needs reference scenarios to assess emission targets and current trends. When presenting their national climate policies, countries often showcase target trajectories against fictitious so-called baselines. These counterfactual are meant present future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the absence of policy. baselines presented by limited use, as they can be exaggerated methodology used derive them is usually not transparent. Scenarios created independent modeling groups using integrated assessment models (IAMs) provide different interpretations several socio-economic storylines a more realistic backdrop which projected trajectory assessed. However, IAMs regional resolution. This resolution further reduced intercomparison studies, data for common set regions produced aggregating underlying smaller regions. Thus, readily available country-specific analysis. gap closed downscaling IAM country level. The last such efforts has been performed SRES (“Special Report on Emissions Scenarios”) scenarios, over decade old now. CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) have downscaled grid; however cover only few combinations forcing levels SSP with single model per combination. Here, we up-to-date from full RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) (Shared Socio-Economic scenario databases, results GDP (gross domestic product) drivers process. at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3638137 (Gütschow et al., 2020).